An Inconvenient Blog

By Ashkan

I’m currently fighting off an intense bout of déjà vu — since this week’s debate, I feel like I’ve been transported back to being my unfortunately normal-height 8th grade self, rabidly absorbing the drama of the 2016 election as my interest in politics was piqued for the first time.

I remember the electorate’s collective shock oscillating to the tune of Trump’s shenanigans, the frequent “Wallahi, he’s got to be finished this time” moments, the universal understanding that Trump would lose very badly, and that I just couldn’t get excited about going to the school dance with my girlfriend (unrelated).

2024 is beginning to feel a lot like 2016. The prevailing sentiment is that a Kamala presidency is a done deal. Trump is back to generating a litany of heinous one-liners. Order seems restored and he’s the underdog again. For informed voters, the decision is increasingly approaching no-brainer territory. It didn’t feel like this a few months ago, though — we all remember the MAGA euphoria from July which produced a crisis in the Democratic party and support for a Republican President that even post-9/11 Bush would be jealous of. Trump was all but assured victory.

But now Biden’s out, Harris is in, and Tuesday’s debate emphatically punched our tickets back to 2016. Trump was unhinged. He tried the no-handshake gambit and was roundly humiliated (or cucked, rather) by an assertive Kamala who shook his hand anyway. He managed to blame absolutely everything on immigrants, from eating cats to transgenderism. He proactively touted conspiracy theories. He doubled down on election denial. He spoke highly of Eastern European autocrats. Kamala wasn’t perfect by any stretch — my frustrations with her on lack of policy definition persist — but she looked like a President while Trump played the role of opinionated Uber driver you wish you could tune out.

As the Left is taking a victory lap, I’m remembering 2016 (Hillary lost). And the numbers, although seemingly rosy, reveal that Kamala is, as of now, in even more trouble than Hillary was. Her current composite polling lead over Trump is 1.5 points nationally. Why are Dems partying like it’s 19.99? 1.5 is well within any reasonable margin of error, as a start, but also problematic in terms of electoral college math and the well-documented Trump polling miss.

Many sometimes forget that Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1 points in 2016, meaning Kamala could very plausibly lose the election even if her average from today holds. I know that individual polls don’t mean much, but we have an interesting case study in the two polls that have been conducted since the debate — one that has Kamala up 5 points nationwide and another that has her behind Trump by 1 in Michigan. Even immediately post-debate, when the impact of a fairly decisive Kamala victory should be most apparent, she’s losing a must-must-win state despite strong nationwide results. Her lead and potential debate tailwinds are precarious.

And we have to talk about the silent majority. In 2020, Biden was supposed to win by 7.2 points but only came up with a margin of 4.5 — 2.7 points less than he potentially should have earned. This fact seems to be conveniently swept under Dominion’s rug, as most just think of 2020 as the one Trump lost (or I guess won, depending on who you ask). 2016 is more well known for its polling miss, even if it was only 1.1 points in Trump’s favor.

This race is far from over. This debate will not do to Trump what the last one did to Biden. Yes, it’s ridiculous that a former United States President spun tales of migrants feasting on the domestic animals of an Ohio town on live television, but “grab ‘em by the pussy” was ridiculous too. So was him mocking a disabled reporter. Trump can totally still win — don’t get too comfortable.